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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán was notable as the sole European Union leader to endorse Donald Trump. This alignment was hardly surprising, in light of the Hungarian leader's championing of contentious notions such as population replacement concept and the crackdowns on journalistic liberties. Commentators observe that Hungary's premier more or less pioneered the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors Before the Hungarian Vote

In recent days, ahead of key votes in Hungary just six months away, the US president returned some political favors. As Mr Orbán pursues a fifth straight win presiding over a country he labels an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party lags in surveys. A meeting to Washington yielded more than some autographed Trump merchandise; it brought considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Waivers and Economic Protections

Although before instructing European states on the necessity to halt all resource supplies from Russia, and warning of sanctions against nations still to purchase Russian crude, Donald Trump consented to grant a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the largest EU consumer of Russian oil. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also agreed to extend a fiscal buffer to Hungary's capital if it runs into any later issues, especially as the European Union persists in holding back substantial EU funds to the nation due to failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this agreement remain unclear. But the US president recently demonstrated his inclination to assist political friends as the America extended a a $20 billion loan to Argentina’s far-right president, Argentina's president. While Mr Orbán failed to obtain a Trump trip to Budapest to Budapest, the discussions nevertheless proved a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, the US president's move likely emphasized the geopolitical stakes of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, holds a solid advantage in the polls. Heads of state know not to expect reliable policies from the US government, and have grown used to the American leader's efforts to belittle the EU. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy American energy resources – openly contradicts European goals to end imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have funneled substantial funds to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has consistently deployed the veto power to impede moves in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and enhancing its leverage in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has refrained from promising a drastic turnaround on the Ukraine conflict, and directed his efforts on domestic issues, while highlighting the need for the country to start acting as a constructive EU member. After years of persistent provocations, EU officials can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, such as the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His continued obstructionism regarding Ukrainian matters risks undermining its security prospects.